What happens to a local newsletter business if Meta ads get expensive?
Short answer
It's the biggest risk in the model, because cheap Meta subscribers are what the whole thing runs on. My hedge is speed: build the list now while ads are cheap. Get to 5,000 subscribers, ideally 10,000, so that if costs jump you still own a solid audience you can keep building on, just more slowly.
This whole model is based on Meta delivering cheap subscribers. I say that out loud because it's the scary part. What if that changes?
"What if Facebook just like all of a sudden charged 4x? ... It would kind of make the whole thing like it would be hard to do."
What's the hedge?
Build the audience now, while it's cheap. A list you already have doesn't disappear when ad prices go up.
- 5,000 subscribers was the number I gave one operator as a good first target. Get there, and if something breaks, you're still good. You can build off those 5,000 more slowly.
- 10,000 subscribers as fast as possible is my goal for the franchise model. If 40 franchises each have 10,000 subscribers and costs change, so what? We build on top of that in other ways.
On the business side, I want done-for-you clients signed for at least a year. If something new pulls attention away after a few months, they're still locked in, and within a year they should have enough subscribers that it matters less.
Doesn't growth slow down anyway?
Yes, even without a price shock. Once a newsletter passes about 10,000 to 15,000 subscribers, it gets harder on Meta to keep growing at the same speed. Some of mine are still growing fast. Others are getting harder.
That's why I set conservative promises. For one done-for-you package, I promised a minimum of 5,000 subscribers in the first year, even though I thought 10,000 to 15,000 was possible. How costs creep up as a list grows is in how market size changes Meta costs.
Can't I just spend more to keep growing?
Not in a small market. Nationally, if you were spending $50 a day and breaking even, you could probably double it to $100 and still break even, then double it again to $200. Locally you can't. The population is too small. Double or triple your spend and your cost per subscriber can go up 4x.
The way out is revenue that pays for the ads. If local businesses agree to pay you for every lead, your ad spend comes back and it becomes a self-fulfilling cycle. See charging advertisers per lead.
What do you do once the list is big?
Put some attention where it shows. Newsletter success is private; nobody can see your subscriber count. Instagram is public. Once a list is large, I've planned to cut the subscriber campaign in half and point the rest at growing Instagram followers. Details in newsletter ads and Instagram followers.
None of this removes the risk. It means that if the cheap window closes, you already own something.
Answered by TJ Larkin. From calls with newsletter operators, partners and my own team, 2025-2026. Last updated .